1.26.01 R.Kilborn & J.Nichols C.S. Monitor
| K A B I L A fils & pere |
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For second day in a row, swearing-in of new Congo President Joseph Kabila was
postponed. Officials maintained inauguration would take place today. News reports said Supreme Court yet to
decide appropriate "constitutional mechanism" for transfer of presidential power. Appointment by parliament of youthful & inexperienced Kabila as chief of state annoys many Congolese, who
consider it equivalent to
making the nation a monarchy. 1.26.01 R.Kilborn & J.Nichols C.S. Monitor |
KINSHASA A week ago, Maj. Gen. Joseph Kabila still could sit with friends and concoct a sly plan
for an anonymous night out. A teetotaler and social introvert, he seldom ventured into Kinshasa's nightclubs. But he
often craved a few hours in a downtown bar favored by other officers, and reckoned the key to relaxation hinged on
leaving his two regular bodyguards and their guns out in the Jeep Cherokee. Kabila would then proceed inside
alone, secure in the knowledge that almost no one knew what he looked like.
Today, the anonymity described by associates must be the most distant of luxuries for Africa's youngest head of
state. In the seven days since his father, Congolese President Laurent Kabila, was felled by a 9mm bullet to the
brain and Joseph, 31, was named his successor, he has inherited the dysfunctional government of a nation mired
in poverty and war, while being introduced to a world eager to take his measure. So far, public glimpses of the new
leader have been scant and tightly controlled: video footage of ceremonial handshakes, brief meetings with
ambassadors of the world powers that had grown so exasperated with his mercurial father.
Already, however, a sketchy portrait of the new Congolese president has begun to emerge, one that in crucial ways
offers hope that Congo's stubborn status quo could change and that steps toward resolving its 2 1/2-year civil war
may be taken. "Joseph doesn't want to fight anymore," said one close associate, who spoke on condition of
anonymity. By all accounts, Laurent Kabila stood as the major impediment to a peaceful settlement of the war
launched Aug. 1998 to unseat him. A peace accord he signed in the summer of 1999 remained unfulfilled largely
because he kept staging new offensives while blocking deployment of U.N. peacekeepers in govt-held
territory. Diplomats who met Joseph Kabila last week emerged clutching a hope that things have changed. The
diplomats were summoned on Thursday from the embassies of the U.S., Britain, Russia, China and France, as well
as Belgium, Congo's former colonial master. Rounding out the list was Kamel Marjane, the Tunisian who
represents U.N. Sec.Gen Kofi Annan and the Congo peacekeeping mission, known by the French abbreviation
MONUC. Comparing notes afterward, the diplomats found the soft-spoken young president had said the same
to each.
" 'For peace to be returned, all Security Council resolutions had to be in effect,' " one ambassador quoted Kabila as
saying. "He said MONUC had a very important and very real job to do. He wanted MONUC to deploy." Analysts
here said Kabila's message obviously came as much from the corrupt but desperate government that survived his
father as from the new president chosen as its public face. The war, which consumes as much as 80 percent of
govt spending, has battered an economy already in shambles when Kabila came to power in 1997. "Within
[Laurent] Kabila's court, among ministers, among the intelligentsia of Kinshasa and the middle
class, there has been a very clear view that there's another way to handle the [peace] process," one
diplomat said.
But it was also clear that it was a message the younger Kabila appeared comfortable delivering. "He was very
confident in himself, very sure of what he wanted to say," the ambassador said. Congolese officials remain vague
on when Kabila will be inaugurated. The question has turned out to be sensitive among Congolese, who held little
affection for the old Kabila and appear leery of his successor. "I haven't heard a good word about Joseph," said one
Kinshasa resident. "I think, on general principle, the idea of Kabila's son slipping in bothers them." Joseph is the
eldest of Kabila's children, thought to number 10 by several wives. He was born either in eastern Congo,
where his father spent most of his adult life as a self-designated rebel leader, or Tanzania, where Laurent Kabila
had a second career as a bar owner and gadabout. Either way, the son reflects his early influences as reliably as
the father reflected his, if less colorfully.
Laurent Kabila came of age as a Marxist, leading rebels in the mountains above Africa's Great Lakes in the mid-
1960s and drawing no less a tutor than Ernesto "Che" Guevara. After months working with Kabila, Guevara
departed more than a bit disillusioned. But Kabila remained a true believer. In May 1997, when he swept into
Kinshasa at the head of a Rwandan-backed rebellion and toppled dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, he brought the Marxist dialectic
with him, eight years after the Cold War was over. He organized Committees for Popular Power. N. Korea sent
officers to train the hapless Congolese army. Western businessmen returned from exploratory visits to
Kinshasa reeling from what one called "Marxist mumbo jumbo."
"That's Kabila," a foreign analyst with long experience in Central Africa said before Kabila's death. "He's a historical
footnote made good. He preserved in amber the political rhetoric of the African liberation movement. "He's Rip Van
Winkle who fell asleep in 1967. Actually, he's Austin Powers." Joseph Kabila, by contrast, was educated in Kenya
and Uganda, in schools that operated on the British model. One friend described him as "Western-thinking,"
another as "very correct." Single and without children, he lived until last week in a relatively modest house beside a
military base.
Acquaintances describe Joseph Kabila as reserved and unaffected. In restaurants he orders eggs and cornmeal
and, in the words of one friend, "wouldn't know a fine wine from grape juice." He drives around Kinshasa in the
Cherokee or a Range Rover Discovery. The younger Kabila's first languages are Swahili and English, a potential
problem in a capital that speaks French and Lingala. Some observers speculate that is why he has yet to address
the nation, because he can't credibly speak its official language, French, but others say that after 3 years in
Kinshasa his French has improved.
Mwenze Kongolo, the justice minister who was among the inner circle who elevated the son, said his silence is
better explained by grief. "Even though you see him doing some official work, it's just an expression of a man of
strong character," Kongolo said. The son emerged publicly 4 years ago, midway through the war that deposed
Mobutu. That rebellion, like the start of Congo's current war, was stage-managed by neighboring Rwanda, which
pushed into Congo to vanquish ethnic Hutu extremists who had fled there after slaughtering at least a half-million
Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda's 1994 genocide.
To put a Congolese face on the assault, the Rwandans and their allies chose Laurent Kabila, the old bush fighter.
And when, as the rebels pushed west toward Kinshasa, the key river city of Kisangani fell, Laurent Kabila
introduced Joseph, then perhaps 27, as the commander who took it. In fact, that battle, like the entire Congo war,
had been directed by the soft-spoken Rwandan colonel who was often nearby, James Kabarebe. "I went with him
to all fronts, up to Kinshasa," said Kabarebe, who remained in the capital for months afterward to train Congolese
troops.
After taking power, Laurent Kabila sent Joseph to China for six months of military training. When he returned, he was made a major general and given command of all land forces in a new war. This time it was against Rwanda, which after falling out with Laurent Kabila launched a fresh rebellion in August 1998, joined by Uganda, another erstwhile Kabila ally. That war settled into the stalemate that continues today. Now, after reverses on the southeastern front that mirrored defeats in the northwest four months earlier, Joseph Kabila is described as ready to accede to the will of Congo's allies and embrace diplomacy. "We can't win," one associate said, "and he knows it."
behind the scenes
There are a myriad of conspiracy theories swirling about over Laurent Kabila's demise. The govt's
official position is that a lone bodyguard shot Kabila, but that it is conducting a thorough investigation. And it's clear
here that many of the various fighting factions felt they had reasons to be rid of him. Most security sources here,
however, say that the Angolans, Kabila's main backers, were most likely the masterminds behind this
assassination. Having come into the DRC at Laurent Kabila's request, the Angolans, unlike the Zimbabweans and
the Namibians, are not primarily concerned with the Congo's vast natural resources. For them, the main reason to
be involved in the DRC is to ensure that the govt in Kinshasa does not support UNITA, the rebel group
that has waged a bush war since 1975 for control of Angola's govt, as happened under former dictator
Mobutu Sese Seku.
Angola, according to security and diplomatic sources here, had, in recent months, begun to tire of
the elder Kabila, believing he was not suiting their purposes anymore. Looking both at the increasing number of
battles against the rebel factions that were being lost (and which were sucking in Angolan resources), and at
Kabila's economic policies, which were, to put it mildly, not working at all. Angolans had begun to feel that Kabila
would not be able to hold out much longer to challengers. Nervous, according to these sources, that the next leader
may not be easy to manipulate or even work with, they decided to take control of the situation
themselves.
pick of the leaders
When Laurent Kabila was killed, Justice Minister Mwenze Kongolo attests, the top govt advisers, military and
political alike, sat down to agree upon a new leader. "Joseph," he says, "was the best man, as he is accepted by all
sides." This may be correct, as Joseph Kabila, at least for the moment, does seem to fit the needs of all these
diverse groups: the rebels, the military & govt leaders, and the Angolans alike. According to his
acquaintances, Joseph is not as hard-line as his father, and is interested in resolving the long and difficult war.
Several years ago, when his father first came to power and the new Kinshasa govt was working with the Rwandans
(though now they are on opposing sides), Joseph Kabila served for a short time as deputy to James
Kabarehe, a Rwandan who had been put in charge of the Congolese Army. The two shared a barracks, and
reportedly would occasionally dine together at the downtown Pili Pili restaurant. Mr. Kabarehe is now the deputy
chief of staff in Rwanda.
Moreover, although it is vehemently denied by the govt and serves to harm him at home, the persistent rumors
about Joseph's mother's Rwandan lineage might actually help him when it comes time to negotiate with the
neighboring country. Finally, young & inexperienced, even if Joseph Kabila is not particularly keen in moving
forward toward peace, he is thought to be easy to guide. The Angolans have already sent in more troops,
ostensibly to protect Kabila. But, in probability, it is also to help begin this sort of guidance. The Angolans are not
only providing the guidance, but they are helping to hold back other rebel leaders vying for the control of
Congo.
The one rebel leader considered strong enough to stage a coup is Jean Pierre Mbemba. He heads the northwest
rebel group Congolese Liberation Movement, a Ugandan based rebel movement that controls much of the
northwest of the country. Mr. Mbemba is married to Mobutu's daughter and has a great deal of support among
former Mobutist, many of whom are waiting across the river in Brazzaville for a chance to claim some power.
pressure to succeed
There is a lot of pressure on the young Kabila to move quickly. Mbemba, in particular, will not sit quietly if he does
not see any movement toward a peace agreement, which he must believe will bring him a piece of cake. Within the
govt, also, there are ministers, such as Interior Minister Gaetan Kakudji. He is a close relative of Kabila's and has a
great amount of support from within the Katanga, Kabila's tribal region, who are willing to give Joseph
some time to prove himself, but who may well attempt to take power themselves if they see him as
ineffectual. Living in a country that is so incredible divided, considered a puppet by so many, and
coming to power at a time that is so uncertain, Joseph Kabila, who is expected to be inaugurated
today, has his work cut out for him. In order to succeed, he must hurry and unite the ethnic, political
and foreign factions around him, while at the same time making sure not to lose the reins.
True success, for Kabila, as well as for the people of this country, would be not only to bring
peace, but to re-establish a real center for the fractured Congo.
A wind blows up, scattering dirt this way and that, and the street kids, high on glue, tongues out, search for cover
under store awnings. Beggars hold out their cupped hands in the darkness. For them and the rest of their scarred
country, will peace ever dawn?
The Washington Post quote a "Kinshasa-based analyst" who reported that elements in
the army were feeling out support from foreign governments for a move against Kabila: "there has
been some disillusionment among some elements of the army, and they have been making
independent approaches among other people to support them." Original press reports
were of Kabila being shot, but expressed uncertainty about whether he had been killed.
Ugandan involvement in the assassination may be indicated by the fact that only Ugandan reports
were positive that Kabila was dead. A senior intelligence source in Kampala telephoned
Reuters saying "I am 101% sure he is dead." Pointing to the role of Uganda, a country which
receives military backing from the U.S., the Belgian newspaper Le Soir stated that: "It is more
than probable that this coup has been carried out with the consent of the U.S." Le Soir
claimed that "semi-official sources" in the US have been saying for several days that nothing further
could be done about a peace deal in the Congo while Kabila was still in power. They described a
scenario in which, after the "disappearance of the president", the team around ex-President
Masire of Botswana, who had negotiated the failed Congo peace deal at Lusaka in the summer of
1999, would "install an interim administration" that would proceed with their original mission of
organising an "inter-Congolese" dialogue. This idea, put forward at Lusaka, is for all the countries to
pull out from the DRC, whilst a new political framework is established between the Kinshasa
regime and the Ugandan and Rwandan-backed rebels.
Le Soir further suggested that elements of the old Mobutu regime could be brought back
into power: "But the interim administration could also open the way for the rebel Jean-Pierre
Bemba to return backed by the old Mobutists, who count numerous friends among the ranks of the
Republicans and who have already been contacted by future U.S. VP Dick Cheney."
Kabila overthrew the US-backed regime of Mobutu Sese Seku in May 1997. It was notorious
for its brutality and corruption. For three decades, the economy was run into a state of
collapse. Mobutu was a personal friend of the Bush family. A further indication of possible US involvement
is the fact that the assassination occurred on the eve of a French-Africa summit to be held at
Yaounde, Cameroon. The summit, entitled "Globalisation and Africa", is to be attended by some 30
African heads of state. It is intended to boost French policies in Africa and offset US influence on
the continent. France's overseas development Minister Charles Josselin attempted to
distance his government from any connection with corruption scandals in Africa, incl those involving
former French President Mitterand's son, by stressing the fact that France is the largest
development aid donor to sub-Saharan Africa.
Kabila was clearly hoping to strengthen his position by gaining support at this
meeting. After the military reverses, he had made what the French newspaper Libération
described as "two small victories". One was passage of the United Nations Security
Council resolution in December, strongly backed by France, demanding that Rwanda and
Uganda withdraw. The second was an agreement negotiated personally by Kabila last week at
Libreville, Gabon between President Buyoya of Burundi and the Hutu militia, the FDD, who had
been conducting a civil war with the Burundi regime from bases inside the Congo. The
intention was to get Burundi, whose forces have been backing Rwanda, out of the Congo war. Hutu
militia, numbering as many as 40,000, and including the Interhamwe, the rump of the Rwandan
regime that carried out the 1994 genocide, have made up a major part of Kabila's forces. In the
1960s, Kabila had led a guerrilla struggle against the Mobutu regime. One of his claims to fame
was a meeting with Che Guevara, although Guevara apparently considered him a
liability— who spent more time in bars and brothels than in politics. Kabila's group controlled a tiny
region in the South Kivu region of the Congo, where it was sustained by gold mining and ivory trading,
and where the group is said to have brutalised the local population. In the 1980s Kabila
moved to Dar es Salaam, selling gold mined in the Congo. Here in 1996, he was contacted by fellow
Pan-Africanist Julius Nyerere, the former President of Tanzania. Kabila was taken up by his
former Pan-African associates President Museveni of Uganda and the then Vice-President of
Rwanda Paul Kagame.
Like them, Kabila had abandoned any pretence of Marxism and was a committed
supporter of the profit system. Uganda and Rwanda were fighting against the Interhamwe in eastern
Congo, then called Zaire. But because of the collapse of Mobutu's army they soon swept across the
country and installed Kabila in power in 1997. With his anti-imperialist rhetoric, Kabila was
initially very popular amongst the Congo population. The US clearly hoped he would become one of
the "new African leaders", like Museveni and Kagame, who were being lauded by President
Clinton. They believed that Kabila, the Pan-Africanist turned free-marketeer, would bring stability to
this huge country, and provide access to its considerable mineral wealth. After little more than a
year in power, however, Kabila broke from his Ugandan and Rwandan backers. The two
countries supported rebel forces in an attempt to oust Kabila, but with backing from Angola,
Zimbabwe and Namibia, he hung on to power and the civil war began. Now that Angola &
Zimbabwe are under pressure from the West to pull out, and the economy of the DRC has all but
collapsed, it is unlikely that Kabila's removal will bring stability to a region dominated by numerous rival
factions, and where the tribalist conflicts created by colonialism are rife. Moreover, the rival
imperialist powers: France, Belgium, and Britain, as well as the United States, all have an abiding
interest in the region.
Bush Policy & Prospects for Peace in the DRC
DRCongo currently in uneasy peace. UN Mission in DRCongo reported cease-fire violations in Equateur province
3.13.01 Fighting between CLF (new faction composed of the MLC & breakaway faction of RCD
Kisangani) and Congolese army also continues. Although Rwanda & Uganda made efforts to withdraw
troops from DRCongo, J. Kabila continues to ask Western countries to apply pressure on them to completely
withdraw. 3.14.01 J. Kabila met with Robin Cook & Tony Blair to ask help removing "Rwanda & Uganda forces in Congo illegally." … UN Security Council resolution in
March for withdrawal of all foreign forces & ceasefire among internal combatants as condition for 3,000
man UN monitoring force in DRCongo. First time since war began that belligerent countries actively withdrew their
troops.… … Bush stated during campaign Africa was not a major area of US national security interest;
key advisors suggest otherwise.
[ More importantly, Bechtel disagrees ]
Africa Bureau diplomats were first regional bureau group to meet Sec.State C. Powell when he took office. In
recent months, he mentioned Africa AIDS crisis and need to resolve longstanding Sudan war.
[ Since when are unopposed torched villages, slave raids & kill'n'go chopper missions
"warfare" ? Answer: when you sold the weapons & trained officers commanding them.]
… When J. Kabila visited U.S. after his father's death, he met with
Corporate Council on Africa, and was introduced by Maurice
Tempelsman. Kabila, "promised to make the country safe for investors and
reassured the Chevron Oil Company that under his leadership there would be stability."
[ Hopefully, he only said this in order to get out of the room alive. He must
know Thos. Sankara's fate ]
Former NSA C.Rice board seat Chevron has at least a $75 million
investment in the Congo. DRCongo made significant moves to liberalize oil & diamond sector.
Commission specifically to deal with liberalization & new mining code being drafted fit Bush
admin economic theories that do nothing for DRCongo humanitarian situation nor contribute to
infrastructure & development of democratic institutions. Exclusive mining sector focus
undermines development.
Despite Colin Powell's acknowledged interest in Africa and expressed concern about the development of major oil
producing countries such as Angola and Nigeria, beyond short meetings with Kagame and J. Kabila, he has not
been outspoken about the peace process in the DRCongo. Given their military, security, and corporate
backgrounds, Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice, and Walter Kansteiner lack humanitarian experience essential for
crafting constructive DRCongo policy … or canceling debt accrued under the leadership of Cold War puppets
like Mobutu Sese Seko. …
9 6.97 "Zaire: Kabila's Desirable Deals" Francois Misser, African
Business
11 10.00 "While Kabila flounders, rebel thrives" F.Misser, African
Business
12 3.14.01 "Kabila Calls for UK Pressure on Rwanda, Uganda" UN
IRIN (Nairobi)
17
1.26.00 "Chevron to Boost Investment in DRCongo" PR Newswire
Santa Ana, Anaheim, Costa Mesa & Garden Grove CA U.S. 
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